Here are our NFL Playoffs Picks. What are our Championship Predictions? Let’s find out!
NFL Playoffs Picks – Championship Predictions
|15:05||Tennessee @ Kansas||KAN -7.5||53.0|
|18:40||Green Bay @ San Francisco||SF -7.5||46.5|
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Tennessee @ Kansas City (-7.0)
You heard me talk all season long about how boneheaded decisions by boneheaded coaches will determine which team covers the point-spread more than any other factor. You won’t see a better example of that all year than Bill O’Brien’s fake punt from his own territory last week. It was the turning point of the entire game, one that the Houston players never recovered from. I don’t think Mike Vrabel is going to make a mistake like that in this game. On the other hand, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Andy Reid make some kind of mistake in clock management, which has always been his knock.
Teams with good running games (Tennessee) travel well in the NFL, especially in the playoffs. But can they win three playoff games in a row on the road? The Giants did in it 2007, and Green Bay did it in 2010. Neither of those teams was on their fourth road game in a row, like Tennessee is this week.
Tennessee held both New England and Baltimore to their lowest point totals of the year the last two weeks. (A tie for the lowest total for New England.) Kansas City scored their highest point total of the year last week.
Ryan Tannehill’s stats have been shaky the last two weeks (51.7 percent pass completions and under 100 yards passing in each game), but he remains the top-rated quarterback in the league in passer rating. I will take Kansas to cover the -7.0 here. They got too much firepower and Tennessee is too exhausted.
Green Bay @ San Francisco (-7.5)
The first thing that catches my eye in this game is the spread. When these teams met in Week 12, the 49ers were favored by 3 points. Since then, Green Bay is undefeated (6-0), while San Fran is 4-2, albeit against tougher opposition. Now the line is 7.5 in some places. Are either of these teams really that much different than they were when they played earlier this year?
Also, it’s rare for Aaron Rodgers to be favored by a touchdown. I went back to 2009 and found only 3 games in which he was favored by 7 or more points and Green Bay covered all three.
The next thing that catches my attention is experience. Both head coaches are relatively new in postseason play, but Green Bay defensive coordinator Mike Pettine has more postseason experience than his counterpart, Robert Saleh, with San Francisco. And when we move to quarterbacks, Green Bay’s Aaron Rodgers has a ton of playoff experience, including a Super Bowl win, while this is Jimmy G.’s second career playoff game as a starter.
And here’s something more … for those of you who don’t know, the city of San Francisco is a cesspool of cultural Marxism, as decadent and disgraceful as any city in the country. After Green Bay’s loss to the 49ers in Week Twelve, there were strong and persistent rumors that the Packer players spent the night before the game partying, chasing women, and engaging in who knows what. Football was the last thing on their minds. Aaron Rodgers himself alluded to such in his postgame comments.
Since that game, Green Bay has gone 3-0 SU on the road. They most definitely will not make the same mistake this week that they did in Week Twelve.
I took Green Bay +7.5. I will also throw a little something on the money line and a little something in the 1st half.